Midterm Elections, Market Volatility, and the Discipline of Staying Invested
If you’ve been watching the markets this week, you’ve probably felt the whiplash.
A strong rally following the midterm elections was quickly followed by a sharp sell-off. With control of Congress changing hands, investors are now assessing what the new political landscape could mean for economic growth, taxes, regulation, interest rates, and ultimately the financial markets.
For investors with substantial portfolios, those questions are worth considering.
But they also require perspective.
Election Volatility Is Nothing New
Markets dislike uncertainty, and elections create plenty of it.
In the months leading up to a midterm election, investors are attempting to price in numerous potential outcomes. Once the election is over, some of that uncertainty disappears—but markets immediately begin processing the next set of variables.
Historically, the period following midterm elections has often been favorable for equities.
According to Fidelity, since 1938 the S&P 500 has generated positive returns in approximately 95% of the 12-month periods following midterm elections, with an average return of roughly 14%.
That’s an interesting historical observation, but it isn’t an investment strategy.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and markets certainly don't move in straight lines following an election—as this week's volatility has already demonstrated.
Markets Care About More Than Who Won
It’s tempting to interpret every market move through a political lens.
In reality, markets are constantly weighing a much broader set of variables, including:
- Corporate earnings and valuations
- Economic growth
- Inflation
- Interest rates and monetary policy
- Tax and regulatory policy
- Geopolitical risks
- Expectations about the future
Changes in Washington can absolutely affect those variables.
For affluent families, potential changes to tax policy can be particularly important. Shifts in capital gains rates, estate and gift tax rules, business taxation, or deductions can influence planning decisions well beyond the investment portfolio itself.
That's why elections matter—but perhaps not in the way political headlines suggest.
Being Disciplined Doesn't Mean Being Passive
One of the phrases investors frequently hear during volatile markets is “stay the course.”
There's wisdom in that advice, but it can also be oversimplified.
Disciplined investing doesn't mean ignoring new information.
At Clarity Wealth, we're continually evaluating whether changes in Washington, the economy, interest rates, or financial markets alter the risk-and-return characteristics of the investments we hold.
Sometimes new information warrants an adjustment.
Other times, the most prudent decision is to do nothing.
The distinction matters.
A sophisticated investment process should continually ask whether the facts have changed—not simply whether prices have moved.
Your Portfolio Shouldn't Reflect Your Politics
Election cycles can be especially challenging because political beliefs are deeply personal.
That creates an additional behavioral risk.
An investor who strongly favors one party may become overly optimistic when that party wins—or unnecessarily pessimistic when it loses.
Neither reaction should determine how family capital is allocated.
Over decades, wealth will encounter Republican administrations, Democratic administrations, divided governments, recessions, expansions, inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and countless events no one anticipated.
A durable financial strategy needs to function through all of them.
The Bigger Picture for Affluent Investors
For families with significant wealth, the objective isn't simply maximizing this year's investment return.
The portfolio may need to accomplish several things simultaneously:
Preserve purchasing power. Generate retirement cash flow. Fund charitable commitments. Provide liquidity for major purchases. Manage taxes. Support children or grandchildren. And ultimately transfer wealth efficiently to the next generation.
Those objectives don't change simply because control of Congress does.
That is why investment decisions should ultimately be anchored to the broader wealth plan.
Final Thought
We pay attention to elections.
We pay attention to policy.
And we certainly pay attention when new information changes the investment landscape.
But we don't believe a few days of market volatility—or anyone's political preference—should dictate a long-term wealth strategy.
Being disciplined doesn't mean being passive. It means knowing the difference between market noise and information that genuinely changes the plan.
Ultimately, your financial plan—not your politics—should determine how your capital is invested.
Because the markets don't vote.
And your portfolio shouldn't either.